Preface
---A market decline made me finally understand: What is truly tested is never the stocks, but your own investment system.
---The same sharp decline caused some people to feel anxious and panicked, while others became excited. At first, I thought the difference was just how much money was made; later, I realized that what truly determines the investment experience is not the market's ups and downs, but whether you have established a mature investment system.
---This market adjustment also made me re-understand the true significance of position management, margin of safety, risk control and investment discipline. The market won't tell you when it will rise in the future, but it will honestly tell you:
Does your investment system stand up to a real test?
The same decline, yet two completely different worlds emerged.
Today, the A-share market suddenly experienced a significant adjustment, and market sentiment quickly cooled down.
Circle of Friends、 financial communities, discussions about the decline were everywhere. Some were worried that their accounts would continue to shrink, some began to regret not selling earlier, and others kept looking for various pieces of information, hoping to find reasons for the market to rebound soon.
However,for the same decline, I saw a different group of people.
They didn't rush to look for good news or to buy bottom, but instead quietly opened their observation lists and re-examined those companies that they had always wanted to buy but had been hesitant to do so because of the high prices.
In the same market, there has never been a unified sentiment.
What truly determines the sentiment is never the market,but your position.
- Those who heavily invested and rushed to buy high hope that the market will rebound tomorrow.
- Those with a reasonable position and some cash reserves hope that the market will fall a little more, so that excellent companies can return to the positions they are willing to buy.
In fact, the market has never changed.
What has truly changed is each person's confidence when facing the market.
And confidence comes from the investment system,not luck.
I'm glad that I didn't continue to invest in the high-growth modules, but I'm regretful about the semiconductor position increase.
The highlight of this year's stock market is the Ai industry chain. The optical module and semiconductor sectors are the hottest topics in the market.
- I have been holding stocks of the optical module company.
My position is not overly heavy.
Many times in the middle, I wanted to increase my holdings, but I always thought the price was too high and didn't wait for the buying point that satisfied me.
At that time, I even felt a little regretful.
I wondered if it was too conservative.
As a result, the market crashed, and suddenly I realized that the "conservatism" that made me regret at that time was actually leaving room for the future.
The market finally gave me the opportunity to patiently wait.
- Compared to the optical module, this lesson the market taught me this time left a deeper impression on me.
The semiconductor market trend was even more vigorous. I bought a small amount of semiconductor ETF during a normal correction, thinking of participating first and observing later.
The position was smaller.
Because at that time, I was very clear in my mind that this was just a tentative layout.
As a result, in just over a week, the account's floating profit approached 40%.
I regretted that my position was too small. Despite knowing the risks, I added half of the position again, thinking of making a short-term profit.
Unexpectedly, not long after adding the position, the market began to fall in a waterfall-like manner continuously.
In the end, not only did the newly added position suffer losses, but even the accumulated profits were almost completely wiped out.
The account eventually returned to a flat position, and even slightly lost.
Ultimately, I was grateful for my restraint and paid for my impulsiveness.
The ultimate reason: I didn't make the decision according to my own system.
I finally realized:
What often destroys the investment system is not a major mistake, but a seemingly insignificant exception.
I finally understood why Buffett has always emphasized the safety margin.
Previously, when I read Buffett, I always felt that what he said was too ordinary.
"Keep some cash."
"Don't predict the market."
"Leave yourself a safety margin."
These statements are found in almost all investment books.
Even for a period of time, I thought they were too conservative.
When the market keeps rising every day, cash seems like a waste.
"Safety margin" seems to imply constantly missing opportunities.
However, when the market suddenly dropped, what came to my mind was not financial news, nor the opinions of analysts. Instead, it was those ordinary words of Buffett.
At that moment, I suddenly understood.
The reason why something becomes classic is not because it is profound.
But because it has been tested by the market time and again.
Before, when I read Buffett, I read his words.
Now, I am beginning to understand his experiences.
Buffett keeps cash for the purpose of having the option when a real opportunity comes. Because he knows that no one can accurately predict the ups and downs of the market.
The so-called safety margin is not merely about a lower price.
What truly gives me peace of mind are a reasonable position size, sufficient cash reserves, excellent companies, and the discipline to adhere to principles.
Perhaps, these are not the original definitions of "safety margin" as proposed by Buffett.
But they are the insights I have gradually gained from these two words as I navigate through market fluctuations time and again.
It is a sense of composure when facing the unknown.
It is the qualification for investors to remain in the market for the long term.
Every time there is a sharp decline, it is actually a free test of the investment system's resilience.
When the market is rising, we always feel that our judgments are correct.
The account keeps hitting new highs, which can easily lead people to mistakenly believe that the profits come from their own abilities.
However, when the market starts to decline, many problems will gradually surface.
It will honestly tell you:
• Is your position too heavy?
• Did you promptly realize the gains from the high positions?
• Do you still have sufficient cash to deal with future opportunities?
• Is your risk control truly effective?
• Are the companies you hold still excellent enterprises worth long-term holding?
• Is the current correction still within the risk tolerance range you set when you made the investment?
• When the market continues to decline, can you remain calm and not be influenced by emotions?
What is truly being tested is not the stocks, but your investment system.
The market won't stop falling just because of your complaints.
Nor will it rise ahead of your expectations.
It's just like a mirror, revealing one by one the problems that are usually masked by the rise.
So, every major crash, rather than being a punishment, is more like a free stress test.
It won't tell you how much money you can make in the future.
But it will tell you:
Did your system have problems in design? Or did it have problems during implementation? Can it support you to keep going?
A truly mature investor always has a set of their own system.
Over the years of investment, I have become increasingly convinced that:
What truly needs to be studied is not just the industry, nor just the company.
What is more important is to study oneself.
The industry can be judged.
The company can be studied.
The macro environment can be analyzed.
However, the market is always full of uncertainties.
What can be truly controlled is only one's own system.
It determines:
When to buy.
When to wait.
When to reduce positions.
When to accept the uncertainties of the market instead of trying to predict it.
Everyone's approach can be different.
Some prefer growth stocks.
Some insist on value investing.
Some like index funds.
Some focus on industry leaders.
None of these have absolute right or wrong.
What truly matters is:
Whether each decision you make always follows the same set of principles.
Because only a system can help us navigate through bull and bear markets.
Only discipline can protect the system.
The greatest value of the stock market is not just teaching us about investment, but also teaching us about self-control.
Naval once said that making money relies on a system.
Buffett's decades of investment also relied on a system.
More and more outstanding investors are constantly proving one thing:
What truly determines the outcome of an investment is not a single miraculous transaction, but rather, adhering to one's own principles for decades on end.
I am increasingly convinced that investing is never a battle against the market.
Rather, it is a battle against oneself.
When prices rise, we need to restrain our greed.
When prices fall, we need to restrain our fear.
When there is volatility, we need to restrain our anxiety.
A truly mature investment system does not guarantee that we will never make mistakes.
Rather, after each mistake, we can become much clearer about:How to avoid the same error in the next instance.
Many people believe that the biggest enemy of the stock market is volatility.
Later, I discovered that volatility is merely a mirror.
What it reflects is not the market, but ourselves.
Every time there is an increase, it will amplify people's greed.
Every time there is a decline, it will amplify people's fear.
And every time one adheres to principles, it will make one's system more mature.
Today's market has not taught me how to predict the next upswing or downturn.
Instead, it has made me re-understand investing.
A truly mature investor will not view every market crash as a failure, but will regard it as a free refresher course.
The market will not change because of our complaints.
However, if after each fluctuation we can make a few corrections to the system, improve the discipline a little, and reduce the element of chance a bit, then many years later when we look back, what we have truly accumulated is not just the profits in the account.
But an investment system that can accompany us through bull and bear markets and continuously create value.
Final Thoughts:
I am increasingly convinced that the greatest value of the stock market is not merely about teaching people how to invest, but also about teaching them to be self-restrained.
A truly mature investment system is not because we will never make mistakes, but because after each mistake, we can more clearly see that what we really need to overcome is never the market, but rather the self that always says to itself - "Just this once, it should be okay."
